Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

(7:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.09 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model