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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 28 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model