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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CLE 46, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-D.McMillon.

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 51, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model