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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 31 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 20 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.51 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model