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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to MIN 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-M.Price to MIN 14 for 8 yards (56-K.Medrano).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.07 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -1.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model