Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- J.J. McCarthy (MIN): -0.410 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIN starting J.J. McCarthy in place of Max Brosmer)
- MIN offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- MIN defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
WAS
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:07 TD MIN (11:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 84-J.Oliver for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – MIN 6
- Q2 05:45 TD MIN (5:45) 27-J.Mason left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – MIN 13
- Q3 07:06 FG MIN (7:06) 16-W.Reichard 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. WAS 0 – MIN 17
- Q3 02:58 TD MIN (2:58) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Martin]. WAS 0 – MIN 23
- Q4 11:31 TD MIN (11:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-31-J.Jones was injured during the play. WAS 0 – MIN 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 73%
(4:25) 10-T.Way punts 46 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 20 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(1:51) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:27) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to MIN 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-M.Price to MIN 14 for 8 yards (56-K.Medrano).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 69%
(10:26) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to MIN 26 for 11 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 51-B.Cashman).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%
(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 30. 43-A.Van Ginkel to WAS 30 for 40 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%
(7:06) 16-W.Reichard 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 19 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:28) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to MIN 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-M.Price to MIN 34 for no gain (18-T.Owens). Penalty on WAS-57-N.Bellore, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on MIN-0-I.Pace, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%
(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-31-J.Jones was injured during the play.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 35 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 73%
(2:03) 36-Z.Scott left guard to WAS 25 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 6-N.Igbinoghene).