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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 37

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(10:26) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to MIN 26 for 11 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.64 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model