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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 19

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 30. 43-A.Van Ginkel to WAS 30 for 40 yards (17-T.McLaurin).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.82 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model