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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 16-W.Reichard 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model