Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 79

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to MIN 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-M.Price to MIN 34 for no gain (18-T.Owens). Penalty on WAS-57-N.Bellore, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on MIN-0-I.Pace, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model