4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-31-J.Jones was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.07 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model