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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 36-Z.Scott left guard to WAS 25 for 10 yards (20-Q.Martin; 6-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model