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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model