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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 19, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 29 for 10 yards (48-J.Gray; 32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model