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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Thursday 2025-12-11 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
40.9%
TB
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.050 vs Kirk Cousins (ATL) -0.073 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Drake London WR Out Knee
David Onyemata DT Questionable Foot
Kyle Pitts TE Questionable Knee
Brandon Dorlus DT Questionable Groin
Jalon Walker LB Questionable Quadricep

TB

SirVocea Dennis LB Out Hip
Rashad Wisdom S Out Quadricep
Cade Otton TE Doubtful Knee
Tykee Smith S Doubtful Neck
Mike Evans WR Questionable Collarbone
Jalen McMillan WR Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 29
–
TB 28

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:41 TD TB (1:41) 77-C.Heck and 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 12:16 TD ATL (12:16) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 02:08 FG TB (2:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 7 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:45 TD ATL (:45) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG TB (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 14 – TB 13
  • Q3 06:25 TD TB (6:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-D.Culp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – TB 19
  • Q4 13:38 TD TB (13:38) (Shotgun) 65-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – TB 26
  • Q4 09:42 TD ATL (9:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – TB 28
  • Q4 03:40 TD ATL (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 26 – TB 28
  • Q4 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 29 – TB 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (12:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to ATL 6, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to TB 17, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 19, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 29 for 10 yards (48-J.Gray; 32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (6:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (2:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (11:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 56%

    (4:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 10.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (1:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to ATL 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (58-M.Watts).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).