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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model