4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-K.Johnson MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model