4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -0.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model