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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to TB 17, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model