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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -3.31 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model