Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CIN defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BAL offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
BAL
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 04:42 TD BAL (4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 0
- Q2 00:29 TD BAL (:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – CIN 0
- Q3 09:08 FG BAL (9:08) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – CIN 0
- Q4 07:55 TD BAL (7:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at BAL 5. 53-K.Van Noy to BAL 16 for 11 yards. Handoff to 12-A.Gilman for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – CIN 0
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 24%
(11:24) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 19 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 57%
(3:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 25 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:51) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 43 for -2 yards (24-M.Starks). BAL-40-T.Buchanan was injured during the play.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 62%
(7:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:13) 8-R.Rehkow punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%
(11:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki [41-D.Jones]. BAL-3-C.Awuzie was injured during the play.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(9:08) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(4:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 78Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(13:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown to CIN 24 for 2 yards (32-T.Simpson).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 72Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at BAL 45 for 27 yards (12-A.Gilman).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 36%
(4:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%
(2:08) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle to BAL 27 for no gain (0-R.Smith; 98-T.Jones).