4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-46-W.Wagner.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model