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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at BAL 45 for 27 yards (12-A.Gilman).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model