4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-14-T.Shavers.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP