Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- NE offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- NE defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.309 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.180 EPA/dropback
- NE on 6 more days rest than BUF
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
BUF
NE
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:28 TD NE (10:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 6
- Q1 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 13
- Q2 06:03 TD NE (6:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson right guard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 20
- Q2 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NE 21
- Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 7 – NE 24
- Q3 11:34 TD BUF (11:34) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NE 24
- Q3 03:51 TD BUF (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 1 for 2 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Buffalo challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NE 24
- Q4 10:10 TD BUF (10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – NE 24
- Q4 10:03 TD NE (10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 28 – NE 30
- Q4 06:53 TD BUF (6:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – NE 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%
(9:17) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 74%
(6:27) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-22-C.Woods.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to NE 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 47. 25-M.Jones to 50 for 3 yards (56-J.Solomon).
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%
(10:39) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-14-T.Shavers.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 62 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 30 for 12 yards (15-M.Mapu).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 44%
(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to BUF 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(2:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 17 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).
-
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 78 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (97-J.Bosa).