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Buffalo Bills

10-4 HC Sean McDermott
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New England Patriots

11-3 HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BUF
44.2%
NE
55.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.309 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.180 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE on 6 more days rest than BUF
  • NE offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24 17–31
–
NE 27 20–34
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

BUF

Josh Palmer WR Questionable Ankle
Terrel Bernard LB Questionable Elbow
Christian Benford CB Questionable Toe

NE

Terrell Jennings RB Out Concussion
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 35
–
NE 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:28 TD NE (10:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 06:03 TD NE (6:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson right guard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NE 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NE 21
  • Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. BUF 7 – NE 24
  • Q3 11:34 TD BUF (11:34) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NE 24
  • Q3 03:51 TD BUF (3:51) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 1 for 2 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Buffalo challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NE 24
  • Q4 10:10 TD BUF (10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – NE 24
  • Q4 10:03 TD NE (10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 28 – NE 30
  • Q4 06:53 TD BUF (6:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – NE 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 47%

    (9:17) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (6:27) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-22-C.Woods.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to NE 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 47. 25-M.Jones to 50 for 3 yards (56-J.Solomon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%

    (10:39) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-14-T.Shavers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 62 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-J.Ashby. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 30 for 12 yards (15-M.Mapu).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 44%

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to BUF 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones to NE 17 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 78 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (97-J.Bosa).

    See the full breakdown →