Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to NE 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 47. 25-M.Jones to 50 for 3 yards (56-J.Solomon).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.77 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model