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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 17

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model