Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Shedeur Sanders (CLE): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CLE defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 15
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:39 TD CHI (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CHI 6
- Q1 01:33 TD CHI (1:33) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CHI 13
- Q3 10:08 FG CLE (10:08) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – CHI 14
- Q3 08:46 TD CHI (8:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 20
- Q3 00:53 TD CHI (:53) 4-D.Swift right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 27
- Q4 07:35 FG CHI (7:35) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CLE 3 – CHI 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%
(14:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones. ** Injury Update: CHI-33-J.Jones has returned to the game. Cleveland challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(11:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CLE 42 for 18 yards (50-R.Sunahara).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 69%
(6:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%
(4:45) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 23% p(FG) 57%
(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CHI 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 74%
(1:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to CLE 38, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-50-R.Sunahara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 42Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%
(:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to CLE 30 for 12 yards [49-C.Schwesinger]. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CLE 26 for 4 yards. Lateral to 25-K.Monangai to CLE 26 for no gain (7-T.Campbell; 26-M.Harden). CHI-18-C.Williams was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CHI 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 47 for 16 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 42%
(12:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 48 for -6 yards (91-A.Wright).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%
(10:08) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Daly. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 17 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CHI 37, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 48 for 11 yards (28-T.Avery; 9-G.Delpit).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%
(7:35) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%
(:19) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CHI 13 for -5 yards (94-A.Booker).
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