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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CHI 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP