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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 46

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones. ** Injury Update: CHI-33-J.Jones has returned to the game. Cleveland challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +4.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model