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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-50-R.Sunahara.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model