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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 42

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to CLE 30 for 12 yards [49-C.Schwesinger]. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CLE 26 for 4 yards. Lateral to 25-K.Monangai to CLE 26 for no gain (7-T.Campbell; 26-M.Harden). CHI-18-C.Williams was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.77 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP