Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(11:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CLE 42 for 18 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.80 EP
49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 93, worth -5.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model