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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP