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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 10-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP