IND @ SEA — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald

Sunday 2025-12-14 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND

32.4%

SEA

67.6%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SEA defense: -0.234 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
IND offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Sam Darnold (SEA): +0.238 EPA/dropback in prior starts
SEA offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 22

–

SEA 26

Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

IND

DeForest Buckner DT Out Neck

Braden Smith T Out Concussion

Sauce Gardner CB Out Calf

Anthony Gould WR Out Foot

SEA

Dareke Young WR Out Quadricep

Elijah Arroyo TE Out Knee

Eric Saubert TE Questionable Calf

Jalen Sundell C Questionable Knee

Rylie Mills DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 16

–

SEA 18

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:44 FG IND (3:44) 10-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – SEA 0
Q1 00:54 FG SEA (:54) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 3 – SEA 3
Q2 08:31 FG IND (8:31) 10-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 6 – SEA 3
Q2 01:37 TD IND (1:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 2-J.Downs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – SEA 3
Q2 00:05 FG SEA (:05) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 13 – SEA 6
Q3 09:53 FG SEA (9:53) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 13 – SEA 9
Q4 13:28 FG SEA (13:28) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 13 – SEA 12
Q4 02:30 FG SEA (2:30) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 13 – SEA 15
Q4 00:52 FG IND (:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – SEA 15
Q4 00:22 FG SEA (:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. IND 16 – SEA 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

(11:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-40-J.Jones.
Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 83

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 59%

(9:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to IND 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

(3:44) 10-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%

(:54) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(14:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 15 for 6 yards (31-T.Goodson).
Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to IND 47, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-C.Owen.
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

(8:31) 10-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(5:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to IND 42, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 9-C.Owen.
Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 70%

(:05) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 60%

(11:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to IND 31 for 7 yards (35-J.Edwards).
Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

(9:53) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(5:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to IND 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-C.Owen to IND 24 for 2 yards (39-T.Okada).
Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(2:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

(13:28) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%

(8:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-31-T.Goodson.
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 12 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

(2:30) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 42 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 38 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 60%

(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.