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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner to IND 31 for 7 yards (35-J.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model