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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-40-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model