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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model