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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to IND 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-C.Owen to IND 24 for 2 yards (39-T.Okada).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model