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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 15 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model