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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 10-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model