4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:54) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model