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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-59-C.McDonald.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model