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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LAC
30.1%
KC
69.9%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.148 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.039 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LAC

Derius Davis WR Out Ankle
Trey Pipkins T Doubtful Ankle
Elijah Molden S Doubtful Hamstring
Troy Dye LB Questionable Hip
Quentin Johnston WR Questionable Groin

KC

Jawaan Taylor T Out Triceps
Marquise Brown WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Trey Smith G Out Ankle
Wanya Morris T Out Knee
Trent McDuffie CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 16
–
KC 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:59 TD KC (8:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:35 FG LAC (2:35) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – KC 7
  • Q2 08:07 FG KC (8:07) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 3 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:42 FG KC (:42) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LAC 3 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:11 TD LAC (:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – KC 13
  • Q3 08:58 FG LAC (8:58) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. ** Injury Update: KC-38-K.Knowles has returned to the game. LAC 13 – KC 13
  • Q3 00:57 FG LAC (:57) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 16 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 80%

    (2:35) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:04) 14-M.Araiza punts 57 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-21-J.Hicks.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:40) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to KC 36, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-59-C.McDonald.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:07) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (2:57) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 82%

    (:42) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:58) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. ** Injury Update: KC-38-K.Knowles has returned to the game.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:03) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (:57) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (5:29) 16-J.Scott punts 28 yards to KC 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 18 for 2 yards (40-K.Williamson; 47-J.Harris). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at KC 16.