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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(:42) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model