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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.01 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP