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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(:57) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model