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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP