Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(1:04) 14-M.Araiza punts 57 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-21-J.Hicks.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model